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DeFi & Stablecoins Research

What I learned trying to answer a deceptively simple question: can stablecoins actually work for the people who need them most?

Research Project • Wonderland Research Challenge • 2024-2025

What This Is About

I came into this trying to understand whether stablecoins could work outside the narrow use cases they're mostly deployed for today. That meant looking at what already exists (USDC, DAI, experimental projects like $BREAD), imagining what could exist (CONCORDIA for commodity trade, $DUX for creator economies), and stress-testing the whole structure through security modeling.

The further I went, the clearer a pattern became—what I started calling the "Impossible Triangle." No stablecoin design seems able to simultaneously maximize capital efficiency, decentralization, and stability. Every project picks two and compromises on the third. USDC gets efficiency and stability through centralization. DAI chases decentralization but ends up dependent on USDC anyway. Experimental models try new trade-offs but hit real-world walls around liquidity, custody, or coordination.

The work also forced me to reckon with things I didn't expect to matter as much as they did: how SVB's collapse rippled through "decentralized" protocols, why Brazilian crime factions might actually be ideal adversaries for certain attack vectors, and what happens when circuit breakers monitor the wrong signals.

If I had to frame it as a question: Can we design stablecoins that hold their peg, use capital efficiently, and stay meaningfully decentralized—especially in places like Latin America where traditional finance already fails people? I'm not sure the answer is yes. But the attempt to answer it taught me what the real constraints are.

Three Ways In

Comparative Analysis

I started by examining three stablecoins that represent fundamentally different bets: USDC (centralized, fiat-backed, completely dependent on US regulatory goodwill), DAI (supposedly decentralized but increasingly reliant on USDC as collateral), and $BREAD (a cooperative experiment that's more about values than market dominance).

The framework I used—Purpose, Infrastructure, Governance—came from trying to understand not just how these things work technically, but what they're actually for and who gets to decide when things go wrong.

View Full Analysis →

USDC Research → DAI Research → $BREAD Research →

Design Experiments

After studying what exists, I wanted to see what could exist if you started from actual use cases rather than crypto-native assumptions. CONCORDIA emerged from thinking about commodity-backed settlement between Brazil, Chile, and their trading partners—countries with real strategic minerals but stuck in someone else's financial infrastructure. $DUX came from looking at Brazil's creator economy, where people with verifiable brand contracts still wait 30-90 days to get paid.

Neither is "better" than existing stablecoins. They're attempts to map different trade-offs: CONCORDIA accepts slower governance for geopolitical neutrality, $DUX accepts centralized underwriting for actual cash flow utility.

View Design Docs →

Attack Modelling

The security work started with a basic question: what does it actually cost to break a small stablecoin? Not theoretically—economically. I modeled attacks on Mento's cREAL (a $372K market cap Brazilian Real stablecoin), looking at oracle manipulation, circuit breaker bypass, and cascade scenarios.

What I found wasn't that the attacks were easy—they're not. It's that the defenses were watching the wrong things. Circuit breakers that monitor oracle feeds but ignore external DEX prices create blind spots. A patient, distributed attack staying under velocity thresholds could be profitable with as little as $100K capital. The interesting part wasn't the attack itself but what it revealed about where security assumptions break down.

View Security Analysis →

How I Approached This

The methodology evolved as I went, but a few patterns held. I kept asking what each protocol was actually for, how the technical choices enabled or constrained that purpose, and who got to decide when things went wrong. The framework that emerged—Purpose, Infrastructure, Governance—wasn't planned from the start. It came from realizing you can't evaluate a stablecoin without understanding these three dimensions.

Three-Dimensional Framework

Analysis Approach

Every protocol analyzed through: Purpose (market need), Infrastructure (technical architecture), and Governance (decision-making).

Attack Simulation

Security Modeling

Modeling adversarial scenarios with realistic threat actors (financial attackers, organized crime, state-sponsored) and economic constraints.

Comparative Analysis

Protocol Evaluation

Side-by-side evaluation of protocols across collateral types, capital efficiency, decentralization, and governance models.

Design Experimentation

Architecture Testing

Creating experimental architectures to test hypotheses about collateral types, market fit, and governance structures.

Case Study Integration

Real-World Validation

Incorporating real-world incidents (SVB crisis, specific protocol exploits, depeg events) to validate theoretical findings.

Geographic Focus

Latin America

Special attention to LatAm markets, examining how stablecoins can address regional challenges (debt, trade, financial inclusion).

Key Research Findings

The Impossible Triangle

Stablecoin projects cannot, until now, simultaneously optimize capital efficiency, decentralization, and stability. Every design involves trade-offs—USDC chooses centralization for stability, DAI sacrifices capital efficiency for decentralization, and BREAD explores new compromises.

Oracle-Circuit Breaker Gap

Critical vulnerability: Circuit breakers that monitor oracle feeds but not external market prices enable arbitrage attacks during depeg events. Attackers exploit the gap between oracle-reported prices and real market prices to extract value while appearing compliant with safety mechanisms. Without solving the challenge of following onchain transactions at a reasonable price, Circuit Breakers will still face this challenge.

Stability vs. Liquidity Distinction

Protocols may maintain price pegs (stability) while experiencing severe liquidity disruptions. Seemingly minor depegs (1-2%) can indicate deeper structural vulnerabilities that manifest as liquidity crises rather than immediate price collapse.

Geopolitical Design Space

Web3 infrastructure can address geopolitical coordination problems, not just financial ones. CONCORDIA demonstrates how public blockchains enable neutral infrastructure for nations with competing interests by providing verifiable fairness through transparent, multi-sovereign governance.

Multi-Layered Security Necessity

Single-layer protections are insufficient against sophisticated adversaries. Effective security requires overlapping systems with different monitoring approaches—but even multi-layered defense has exploitable gaps when layers share assumptions.

Real-World Asset Integration

RWA-backed stablecoins face unique challenges: custody complexity, redemption logistics, and regulatory compliance. Success requires not reinventing traditional infrastructure but integrating it transparently with blockchain rails. The innovation is transparency, not replacement.

Research Documents

The complete research is documented across 25 Google Docs, organized by research phase:

📊 Phase 1: Comparative Analysis

USDC Research:

DAI Research:

BREAD Research:

🔐 Phase 2: DeFi Ecosystem & Security Research

⚔️ Phase 3: Attack Modeling & Simulations

🧪 Phase 4: Stablecoin Design Experiments

Total: 23 research documents — 8 for Comparative Analysis, 3 for DeFi Security, 3 for Attack Modeling, 4 for Design Experiments, 3 for Website Content, and 2 for Project Management.